Markets Say: V-shape -> L-shape recovery, Polling shifts in Kansas GOP Primary, Clemency volatility
Newsworthy Move: Economic Growth
Traders expressed concerns over the economy yesterday as the likelihood of 5% growth before Q1 2021 dropped from 73% to a low of 66% intraday.
This market is largely reflecting the shape of the pandemic recovery, as traders interpret the rules to say that QoQ growth of 5%+ would lead the market to resolve as Yes. A ‘V-shaped’ recovery, as the stock market appears to be expecting, would put Q3 in a good position to outperform our quarantined Q2.
Are PredictIt traders signaling a key shift ahead of the overall stock market?
Trading Opportunities
The Michael Flynn clemency market continues to be a boon of volatility for quick traders. After trending down to 22% mid-day, additional news about the process for dropping the case led to a rapid run up in price.
It’s interesting to note that traders appear to be baking in nearly 100% likelihood of a pardon if he’s convicted.
Top Movers Summary
New Markets Summary
Will Christopher Wray be Director of the FBI on July 1?
Will a federal charge against Barack Obama be confirmed before November 3?
Who will win the 2020 Libertarian presidential nomination?
How many tweets will @realDonaldTrump post from noon May 13 to 20?
What will Trump's 538 job approval index be at noon on May 20?