Markets Say: Trump Approval dropping; Esper's hot seat cooler now
Newsworthy
In the next-to-leave Trump’s cabinet market, Mark Esper, who traded above 40% earlier this week based on media reports of splitting with Trump, has now faded. He’s currently trading at 25%, with Alex Azar back in the lead.
With Tweet markets gone, many traders have migrated to polling/approval markets. Trump’s approval rating has declined sharply over the past week, and odds significantly favor B1 (the low bracket) at 88% in the job approval by June 10 (tomorrow) market. Similarly, B1 is now nearly favored (49%) in the longer term job approval by June 30 market.
Let’s look at the resolving institution for that market: 538’s daily approval rating calculation based on third party polls. The approval rating is already below the lowest bracket for June 10, and traders in the June 30 market are betting the downward trend continues.
The short term contract saw some volatility yesterday:
While movement in the long term contract was steady: