Markets Say: Flynn & Stone Clemency Markets Roiling
The Michael Flynn clemency market dropped yesterday on traders’ increasing belief that the charges will be dropped altogether. Flynn is seeking to withdraw his guilty plea based on documents suggesting he may have been ‘set up’ by the FBI: see Washington Post coverage here.
Obviously if there’s no conviction, then there’s no need for clemency!
Conversely, the Roger Stone clemency market moved up after dipping the day before, likely as a result of traders adjusting positions as they consider news about Flynn.
Our largest mover yesterday looks to be an errant trade in the low liquidity GA-7th market. Last price traded is nearly 50% off the current best offer for Republican YES.
We highlight it to emphasize that the U.S. needs fully legal and mature prediction markets to keep this from happening.
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