Markets Say: Biden by 45-50% in Oregon; Vote Count Still Uncertain
Newsworthy Moves
Oregon voters went to the polls yesterday and while there was little doubt of a Biden victory, there were two rapid flips in the margin of victory contracts as the results were rolling in.
In the days leading up to the election, the four bins across the 40% to 60% range represented a collective ~60c, and yesterday the Democrats of Oregon validated this forecast with the 45-50% bin up to 0.89c as of writing.
This not before two rapid flips. Early reporting districts put heavy buy pressure on the 50-55% bin as Biden’s margin started high- driving the price up to 0.75c- but a reversal between 11PM and 1AM EST put 45-50% back on top, seemingly for good. The ill-fated 50-55% bin finished the day at just 0.03c.
Meanwhile, the Oregon vote-count market still looks to be wide open between the 580-610K and 610-640K bins with both hovering around 50c: opportunity knocks.
Top Movers
New Markets and Contracts
What will be the 'tipping point' jurisdiction in 2020? Two new contracts were added to this existing market: “Colorado” and “Maine 2”, both settled in at 0.2c